Hubris Watch

I figure most eras of American history have their share of hubris but I would stack the first decade of the 21st century up against the best of them:

2000 - Karl Rove finds the perfect candidate for President through whose administration he will be able to manipulate the political system and create a Permanent Republican Majority. Instead, the tenure of George W Bush sinks into crass opportunism, abuse of power and executive incompetence that results in record deficits, a tarnished image and a set back to conservatism that may require a generation to overcome.

2001-2003 - Donald Rumsfeld and the neo-conservatives decide that, with a couple of bombers and Army Rangers, they can scare the regime in Iraq into (American) bloodless submission. Then all the petroleum producing countries in the region would lay their oil at our feet and marry their sons to Israeli princesses. "Democracy" and Pax Americana would flower in the Middle East and through out the world. Instead Iraq is destroyed, the price of oil spikes, the military is straining at the seams and Iran emerges as a serious regional power.

and finally,

2000-2008 - I love this one: the financial geniuses on Wall Street come up with formulas that allow them to structure their portfolios such that risk can be managed while returns continue unabated. Got that? Risk Will No Longer Be A Problem! The result? A complete financial meltdown.

Gotta love it!

Doing Their Work For Them

The revelation in the latest National Intelligence Estimate that Iran abandoned it's nuclear weapons program in 2003 leads me to several questions, the principle one being; Why 2003?

The answer that leaps to my mind is that Iran was rushing toward a nuclear weapon because Bush had declared that our invasion of Iraq was to prevent just such a development by Saddam Hussein. When Iran heard this, it would not be able to help noticing that no one was invading North Korea which was believed to already possess such weapons. The obvious conclusion of everyone in the world except George Bush was that countries opposed to the US were in danger of invasion unless they figured out how to build the Bomb, and quick!

Come Fall 2003 and the invasion of Iraq is in full swing. Bushies might claim that we had frightened Iran into abandoning their WMD program by the shear awe of our military operations. That of course would be assuming that our military operations, however brilliant, were successfully controlling the country and overcoming the Baathist Plan B - guerrilla warfare. By that time, it was becoming clear that the US occupation was inept and the US military incapable of threatening any other country for a good long time.

If you are not convinced that the US struggles in Iraq were discernible in 2003, then you must admit they were glaringly obvious by 2004/2005. If Iran had been frightened into abandoning nuclear ambitions by Shock and Awe in 2003, then they would have been able to start back up in 2005 with no fear of invasion by the US. On the other hand, if, based on the evidence on its doorstep, Iran calculated that the US was not a military threat to the regime then the urgency to gain nuclear weapons disappears and other means for regional influence and protection become more attractive priorities.

What this NIE shows most of all is that the Crazy Man theory of international diplomacy is bankrupt. If it can be applied to Kim Jong-Il, that is its limit. As for the rest of the world, even the meanest despot is working from a position of self-interest that may be potentially understood and influenced. We will not always win or get everything we want in the world but basing policy on the proposition that our adversaries are "crazy" is a recipe for unmitigated disaster, failure and decline.

The Drums of War - Jerusalem Edition

In some quarters Debka is considered a super-secret destination for real intelligence news. Their confidential sources in the much vaunted Israeli intelligence and defense establishment is hinted at as the source of their credibility.

Now, compare this

DEBKAfile Reports: Two US carrier-strike groups are bound for Persian Gulf region, bringing number back to three

September 18, 2007, 4:18 PM (GMT+02:00)
USS Truman Strike Group heading for Gulf

USS Truman Strike Group heading for Gulf

DEBKAfile’s military sources report that from the third week of July, the only American strike force- carrier in the Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea region was the USS Enterprise. By the end of September, it will be joined by the USS Nimitz and the USS Truman Strike Groups. Our sources note that with their arrival, three American naval, air and marine forces will again confront Iranian shores at a time of crisis in the military and civilian leadership of Iran - signaled by the abrupt change of Revolutionary Guards Corps commanders, rising Israel-Syrian tensions and a troubled situation in Lebanon.

The Nimitz left the region to take part in large-scale Malabar 2007 II exercise with five Asian nations, termed by Indian military observers “the first step towards establishing Asian NATO. Since the maneuver ended Friday, Sept. 7, the Nimitz has been on its way back to the Persian Gulf. The Truman group, made up of 12 warships and submarines, including a nuclear sub, with 7,600 sailors, air crew and marines aboard, has just completed a long series of training exercises and is preparing to set out for its new posting. It carries eight squadrons of fighters, bombers and spy planes.

The Truman force’s battle cry is: “Give ‘em hell”.

The combined naval strike groups include the Monterey-CG 61 guided missile cruiser, the USS Barry DDG 52 and USS Mason-DDG 87 guided missile destroyers, the USS Albuquerque-SSN 706 fast nuclear strike submarine and the combat logistical USNS Arctic T-AOE 8.

In the last week of August, the USS Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike Group took up position opposite the Lebanese coast amid trepidation over the September presidential election. Our military sources reported that aboard the group’s vessels are members of the 22nds Marine special operations-capable Expeditionary Unit, who are ready to execute landings on Lebanese beaches.

with this


Nimitz to return home Sunday

6:44 p.m. September 25, 2007

SAN DIEGO – The San Diego-based aircraft carrier Nimitz has left Hawaii for the final stage of a six-month deployment that will bring the ship, its air wing and its strike group home Sunday, Navy officials said.

The carrier left the island Monday. It is carrying more than 4,000 sailors, plus 1,295 of their friends and family members who climbed aboard at Pearl Harbor and will stay until the journey's end.

These guests will get to watch demonstrations of air and sea operations, take tours of the ship and join in a shipboard talent show.

The Nimitz left San Diego on April 2 along with Carrier Air Wing 11, the cruiser Princeton and the destroyers John Paul Jones, Higgins and Chafee.

This contingent traveled to the Persian Gulf and operated alongside the John C. Stennis carrier strike group. Their joint presence, double the usual number of carrier groups in the region, reflected the United States' heightened tension with Iran at the time.

It's going to be hard to fool those sailors' families into believing that their fathers and daughters are finally home safe in California when they are really in the Persian Gulf.

Comedy is hard

Now that Army War Games have determined that a likely outcome of America's withdrawal from Iraq will be Iran being sucked into the Iraqi quagmire, I have to draw attention to my previous attempt at humor. Damn it! How can you be witty and funny when reality comes along and steals your idea? Sincerest form of flattery my a**!

Never Mind

I admit that I was suffering a mild infection by the whole two-aircraft-carriers-mean-war-with-Iran meme. Now, I am virus free.

The cure? Although there are two Carrier Strike Groups the the Gulf, the two Expeditionary Strike Groups assigned to the Fifth Fleet have their ships scattered. These ESGs are led by aircraft-carrier-like LPD's that can land, along with their accompanying vessels, thousands of marines supported by helicopter gunships. Unfortunately, one amphibious assault ship in the USS Boxer ESG is currently in the South China Sea. Elements from the USS Bataan ESG are currently participating in exercises with the Kenyan military.

Now, if I were going to launch a strike against a heavily defended country from within the confines of a narrow body of water, I would not allow critical assets to be sent as far away as the Pacific Ocean. I would be gathering them up like a clenched fist.

Finally Some Useful Employment for Politicians

From a McClatchy Washington Bureau report:

At a briefing Sunday in Baghdad, U.S. military officials said the al-Quds Force, an elite Iranian paramilitary organization, is sending arms into Iraq that include bombs that shoot molten metal jets through the armor of American tanks and Humvees.

They said these "explosively formed projectiles," or EFPs, have killed 170 U.S. troops and wounded more than 600 others and are "coming from the highest level of the Iranian government."

[italics added]

It's nice to know that President Ahmadinejad has a hobby.

Exit Al Zarqawi, Enter Dick Sargent

Now that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is safely dead, the White House is in desperate need of a Bad Guy on whom they can pin their problems in Iraq. Bin Laden is too remote and ineffectual. Sadaam has been hanged. Wait a minute… What about Iran?

On NPR this morning, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns claimed that the US has spent two years tracking Iranian activities in support of killing American soldiers. Two years! And it is pure coincidence that they are just now getting around to doing something about it?

The absurdity of this new line of administration deceit is that Shi’ite Iran is unlikely to be providing sophisticated explosives to the Sunni insurgents who kill the vast majority of American GIs as well as thousands of Shi’ite citizens. Then we reflect on the fact that Iran’s “agents” are being arrested in places like the home of a prominent Shi’ite leader, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim.

No, if Bush wants to target the sources of aid for the organizations targeting American forces, he needs start by looking to our “ally” in the region, Sunni Saudi Arabia. Saudi King Abdullah has warned the administration that if it abandons the Sunni Iraqis in favor of the Shi’ite majority, the Kingdom will be forced to throw its full support behind the Sunni insurgents. Back in 2003, WordNetDaily reported that the CIA had confirmed that wealthy Saudi individuals were supplying funds for Sunni military activities in Iraq (think back to the New York-IRA connection).

Now tell me who is killing Americans. Tell me that the NeoCons aren’t itching to pull the trigger on Iran.

[Update: Added link to WorldNetNews article]

George Bush - Suuuuper Genius

You may have read about it in the papers without realizing the full significance of it. Back in 2003, under the cover of darkness, the United States military undertook a daring operation. Employing all the covert resources at its disposal the men and women of the armed forces carried out the President's orders to overthrow the Iraqi regime of Sadaam Hussein. This seemed like a straightforward and reasonable action. To the uninitiated.

As the years have passed, the plan, cleverly named Operation Iraqi Freedom, has been carried out more or less as foreseen by the architects in the Pentagon and State Department. Each day brings news of another successful bombing or attack. Unseen and unnoticed the Iraqi military is being trained to use small arms and 70 or so vintage Warsaw Pact tanks. Meanwhile the Iraqi Air Force is gaining experience in the operation of several dozen helicopters and propeller driven observation planes. With patience and knowing silence, U.S. planners watch their scheme come to fruition.

"But wait a minute," you interject, "Did you just say the Iraqi military has only 70 tanks and a few Hueys and Cessnas?" You must be unusually paranoid to notice that. A Senior Administration Official can easily pass you off as some sort of fringe crank. You are no real danger to the plan. Even if you accuse the administration of indefinitely starving Iraq of the ability to defend itself "until its army is fully trained," only the New York Times would print your allegations.

You are too simple to understand the true brilliance of President Bush and his advisors. You see, the chaos in Iraq is not the result of poor planning or incompetence. On the contrary, a failed state in the heart of the world's most important petroleum producing area is exactly what is intended. The greater the disorder and civil unrest that befalls Iraq, the better. Of course, timing is crucial to this operation and Ambassador Khalilzad has had to bring all his talents to bear in order to orchestrate events. At the risk of compromising national security I will reveal final phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom.

In early 2007, with his Presidency rapidly coming to an end, President Bush will announce that the U.S. mission in Iraq has been accomplished and our troops will withdraw from the region. The situation on the ground will be such that public opinion will be overwhelmingly supportive. Shortly after the last U.S. Marines have evacuated the Green Zone, Iran will announce that the violence being perpetrated on its fellow Shiites in Iraq has left it no choice but to send Revolutionary Guards into Baghdad in order to stabilize the situation. At this point George W Bush's place in history will be assured. The quagmire so carefully crafted by Secretary Rumsfeld and Vice President Cheney will entrap the Iranians for the foreseeable future. Their ability to influence the Middle East will be greatly curtailed and, in need of foreign currency to support their military, they will be forced to sell the U.S. and Israel all the oil we can consume.

Or... we plan to prevent Iraq from ever having a viable national defense in a volatile part of the world, requiring a string of permanent U.S. bases from which America can control the shipment of oil to the rest of the world. But that would be crazy.

(Originally posted on myspace)